AP Voter Poll Finds Young and Hispanic Voters Shifting to Democrats

WASHINGTON & DANVILLE, Calif. — Voters under 30 and Hispanic voters swung sharply toward Democratic U.S. House candidates in Tuesday’s 2026 midterm elections amid widespread concern over living costs and congressional checks on the presidency, according to The AP Voter Poll, even as one of the most diverse candidate slates in U.S. history pursued landmark breakthroughs and marquee Senate contests unfolded in Michigan and Texas.

AP Voter Poll of 80,000 Voters Shows 7 in 10 Under-30 Voters Backing House Democrats

Conducted by SSRS from October 19 to November 3 in Alaska and October 22 to November 3 across all 50 states with a margin of error of 0.6 percentage points among roughly 80,000 registered voters, The AP Voter Poll found significant demographic shifts from the 2024 presidential election:

• Young Voters (Under 30): Roughly 7 in 10 voters under 30 (who represent about 1 in 10 midterm voters overall) supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while 3 in 10 voted Republican—a marked shift from 2024, when young voters were roughly split between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. About half of young voters said they feel "angry" about the country’s direction, compared with one-third of voters ages 65 and older.
• Hispanic Voters: About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters backed their local Democratic House candidate and only one-third supported the Republican (compared with roughly 4 in 10 who voted for Trump in 2024), while 7 in 10 Hispanic voters said Trump’s policies have worsened U.S. economic conditions.
• Presidential Checks & Top Issues: About 4 in 10 voters cast their congressional ballot to express opposition to Trump (versus under 2 in 10 to express support and 4 in 10 who said he was not a factor), while 6 in 10 disapprove of his job performance. Roughly 7 in 10 voters—including 4 in 10 Republicans—said Congress is doing "not enough" to check the presidency (with 2 in 10 saying "about the right amount" and 1 in 10 "too much"). Overall, 4 in 10 voters named the economy as the nation’s top issue, 3 in 10 cited the state of democracy (where 8 in 10 backed Democrats vs. 2 in 10 for Republicans), and 1 in 10 named immigration or healthcare.

Historic Firsts Across Governorships and the U.S. Senate

As reported by KCBS Radio and The Associated Press, Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics documented nearly 300 women running for the U.S. Senate and House alongside 19 Democratic women (up from 2022) and 7 Republican women running for governor:

• Native American Leadership: In New Mexico, Democrat Deb Haaland (first elected to Congress in 2018) faced Republican Gregg Hull to become the first Native American woman governor (following Oklahoma’s Johnston Murray in the 1950s and Kevin Stitt), while Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola (elected to the House in 2022) challenged Sen. Dan Sullivan and Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan faced Republican Michele Tafoya (who would be the first Latina Republican senator).
• Black Governors & Senators: Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms (facing Republican Rick Jackson in Georgia, where all 83 prior governors were white men and Stacey Abrams was nominated in 2018 and 2022) and Republican Lisa Demuth (facing Sen. Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota) could end a 250-year streak without a Black female governor, while Maryland Gov. Wes Moore—the 3rd (third) elected Black governor in U.S. history—could be joined by up to 7 (seven) more across 250 years of statehood, and Illinois Democrat Juliana Stratton could join Sen. Tammy Duckworth.
• Additional Milestones: New Hampshire Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas faced Republican John E. Sununu to become the first openly gay male U.S. senator, Marsha Blackburn and Jerri Green vied to become Tennessee’s first female governor, and Amanda Janoo (Vermont) and Cyndi Munson (Oklahoma) sought to become the first Democratic Asian American woman governor, a breakthrough celebrated by State Voices CEO Alexis Anderson-Reed.

Contentious Senate Battles in Michigan and Texas

Two marquee Senate contests drew national spotlight Tuesday night:

• Michigan Senate: As reported by KCBS Radio anchor Rebecca Goodeyon and WWJ Detroit anchor Jay Dennis, progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed—who could become the first Muslim U.S. senator—faced former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
• Texas Senate & Governor: According to ABC7 News, where no Democrat has won a statewide election in more than 30 years (since 1994), Democratic state Rep. James Talarico challenged Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott—who won his past 3 (three) elections by double digits—faced Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.