Polls Show Eric Jones Leading Rep. Mike Thompson in 4th District

Two October surveys commissioned by Democratic challenger Eric Jones's campaign show a double-digit lead over Democratic incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson in the 4th Congressional District (Napa, Colusa, Sutter, Yuba & 5 Neighboring Counties), CA, according to October 15–21, 2026 Polls (Reported October 29, 2026).

David Binder Research and Fulcrum Strategy Group Survey Results

As reported by Napa Valley Register reporter Barry Eberling, Jones's campaign released two mid-October polls covering California's 4th Congressional District—which encompasses all of Napa, Colusa, Sutter, and Yuba counties along with portions of ** 5 Neighboring Counties (Sonoma, Lake, Yolo, Sacramento, and Placer):

• David Binder Research Survey: The poll shows 52% Jones to 40% Thompson (Oct. 15–21, 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error; reverses 13% July deficit), with remaining respondents undecided or not selecting a candidate. According to a Jones campaign news release, that marks a turnaround from a July survey by the same firm that showed Thompson leading by 13%.
• Fulcrum Strategy Group Survey: A second survey found 53% Jones to 40% Thompson (Oct. 18–20, 400 participants, 4.9% margin of error).
• Campaign Manager Statements: In the release, Jones campaign manager Brian Parvizshahi stated: "These numbers show that voters across this district are ready for change, and our coalition is built to deliver it." Responding to the Napa Valley Register, Thompson campaign manager Thomas Dowling countered: "San Francisco venture capitalist Eric Jones is so desperate to buy a seat in Congress that he's using the millions he earned profiting off people's pain to try and do it. The choice in this election is very clear. Mike Thompson will fight Trump and deliver for this district while Eric Jones is only in it for himself."

Fundraising Contrasts Between the Two Democratic Candidates

The race pits a 14-term incumbent against a self-funded political newcomer:

• Challenger Funding: More than $15 million self-funded out of $18 million total campaign (manager Brian Parvizshahi) has backed Jones, 35, who has criticized Thompson for accepting contributions from political action committees.
• Incumbent Record & Filings: Thompson, 75, sits on the House Committee on Ways and Means and has emphasized his seniority and legislative experience since first being elected in 1998, with $5.5 million raised as of Oct. 20, including $2.4 million from political committees (first elected 1998).